Tesla robotaxi anticipation hits fever pitch ahead of debut


Illustration of a vintage advertisement of a man pointing at the Tesla logo

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Tesla is poised to debut its long-awaited robotaxi Thursday night — and possibly an update on its humanoid robot — in a reveal that will require observers to separate sizzle from substance.

Why it matters: Tesla CEO Elon Musk has described self-driving car technology and AI robots as essential to the company's current stock valuation and its future.

The big picture: The company is widely expected to debut the so-called Cybercab at an event at Warner Bros. Studios in Hollywood.

  • The name of the event — "We, Robot" — says a lot, but Tesla has said little about what it will actually reveal.

The hype is already feverish — with even analysts who disagree on Tesla acknowledging the gravity of the moment.

  • Bernstein analyst A.M. (Toni) Sacconaghi, Jr., a Tesla bear, said it may be "among the most anticipated corporate announcements ever."
  • Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a Tesla bull, said there've been "very few industry events as widely anticipated as this."

What to watch for: What has Tesla actually accomplished, versus what does it say it will accomplish — and is there a realistic pathway to getting there?

  • The company is expected to give test rides to certain attendees. Will they venture into real-world traffic or stay on the studio lot?

Crucially, what's the timeline? Given Tesla's track record for "overly optimistic" projections, "there is significant devil in the details," Sacconaghi wrote.

  • Will the company give a glimpse of its humanoid robot, Optimus, which Musk has described as its most important long-term project?
  • What will the revenue model look like? Tesla may show off a ride-hailing app Musk has teased in the past.

By the numbers: Ives believes AI and self-driving technology represent "$1 trillion of value alone for Tesla over the coming years."

  • "We believe Robotaxi Day will be seminal and historical day for Musk and Tesla," Ives wrote.

🤔 Reality check: Autonomous driving company Waymo is widely thought to be leading the pack on its way to coveted Level 5 autonomy — a vehicle where humans never have to intervene.

  • And "even if Tesla is able to be first to L5, it is likely that fast followers can catch up with competitive offerings, mitigating opportunities for outsized
    profits," according to Sacconaghi.

The bottom line: There's a real risk that today's event could be promising yet still yield "a 'sell the news' reaction in its aftermath," CFRA Research analyst Garrett Nelson says.

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